Post-Pandemic Optimism

Should a small business leader be preparing for a post-pandemic boom or bust?

While many experts are predicting months if not years of recession when the nation returns to a semblance of economic activity, we are expecting a robust rebound.

There are several reasons to think prosperity will return.

Not the least is the pent up demand created by these recent months of stalled activity.

Let’s list just a few changes in the Pandemic fostered. Consumers stayed home in late winter and early spring. They spent more on comfort foods; board games; and other home centered products.  Billions of dollars in Spring, Summer fashions are left unbought.  Easter, Passover, Mothers’ Day celebrations not tendered as usual, with upcoming graduations, Memorial Day, Flag Day, Fathers’ Day, Fourth of July celebrations expected to be altered.  Many spring fix-up, gardening, and vacation trips were put off or abandoned.

Add to these factors the $1,200 credit sent by the U.S. government to most eligible individuals along with hefty unemployment checks and it is possible to see an avalanche of dollars opening up during the remainder of the year.

However, this view is tempered by experts concerned many small businesses will not reopen as restrictions are eased.

That well may be the case, but for those enterprises able to survive the Pandemic, opportunities abound.  Their problem will be finding the materials to supply the demand.

Interestingly, there is a precedent for this optimism.  In the aftermath of the 1918-1920 Spanish Flu crisis there was also a surge in economic activity.  As the nation returned to what President Warren G. Harding said was “normalcy” America entered into the Jazz Age marked by higher stock markets; vast material lifestyle improvement; and economic growth.  True, a fierce depression followed but the number of small businesses quadrupled in the next eight years during the roaring 20’s.

There are many reasons to believe, such a major expansion could also occur after this latest health crisis.

Not the least is the innate optimism of American small business leaders.  This is a factor not to be ignored in the days ahead.

Perhaps it is better to plan for growth rather than live in fear.  Also, plan now how to get needed supplies for business continuance.